A United Ireland Plebiscite Cannot Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."